Vol. 21, issue 06, article # 4

Abstract:

We present a development of the technique for solving problems connected with dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean, as well as with the control for environment. New elements are numerical algorithms for optimum estimations of the predicted characteristics with allowance for indeterminacy. The latter can be interpreted as errors of models, parameters, and input data. The indeterminacy functions are introduced into the simulation system explicitly. The idea of the proposed approach is based on a special organization of the variational principle for non-linear models of the studied processes, which are considered in the generalized variational formulation. For this purpose, the objective functional is supplemented with functionals, expressing the total measure of all indeterminacies and, given the observational data, the measure of differences between the measured values and their images calculated by the models. The structure of the computational technology, which uses the universal algorithm of direct-inverse simulation for realization of this technique, is described. The proposed algorithms are intended to improve the organization of adaptive (or directed) strategies of monitoring and optimal forecasting of changes in the atmosphere quality.